Back in 2001, a prominent politician derided energy efficiency efforts, saying, "Conservation may be a sign of personal virtue, but it is not a sufficient basis for a sound, comprehensive energy policy." This week saw a pair of reports that can be viewed as a giant "au contraire." The National Academies of Science released a report that looked at the energy market as a whole, and concluded that conservation through efficiency would largely be enough to limit the building of new powerplants to what's needed for the replacement of obsolete facilities. Meanwhile, McKinsey & Company put some hard numbers on things: even if we limit ourselves to efficiency efforts that pay back within a decade, it'll provide the equivalent of 9.1 quadrillion BTUs of carbon-free energy by 2020. The McKinsey report arrived at those figures by performing a fairly simple economic analysis: what measures, if rolled out on a large scale starting in the near future, would have a positive return on investment by 2020. Those are fairly conservative conditions, since many efficiency projects require a substantial up-front investment that's only paid back gradually; time horizons longer than a decade aren't uncommon when it comes to payback. Nevertheless, the numbers were staggering. $520 billion worth of investments would produce a total of $1.2 trillion in savings by 2020. Presumably, the numbers would look even better later into the century.
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